What is going on with Chelsea?
“There are always other opinions and negativity and criticism because the results haven’t been positive. That’s part of the job and part of the challenge.”
Chelsea are in 10th place in the league, sandwiched in between the very fun to watch Brentford in 9th and the resilient Emery led Aston Villa in 11th. Unlike Arsenal, there is no question that Chelsea are not good this season, but what is causing them the most problems? Is Potter out of his depth? Is a signing like João Félix or Benoît Badiashile going to make a difference for them? Was West Ham easier to analyze than this Chelsea mess? Let’s look at the squad.
Offense
We won’t ask who is Chelsea’s #9 but instead, who can and has played there? Kai Havertz, signed for €70.00m in the Summer of 2020 has gotten the most run time in this position. Chelsea also have Armando Broja, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and newly signed David Datro Fofana who can all play this position. At the time of writing, João Félix has also agreed to join Chelsea and can presumably play in the #9 position.
That is 5 options, five players, that can all play in the #9 position and out of the the 5 maybe 1 of them (Felix) is good enough. Kai Havertz is one I especially do not understand. Nothing about Havertz’s play is that of a modern day effective forward. Aubameyang found himself playing left-wing towards the end of his Arsenal, also not a modern day forward. Chelsea’s issues are abundant but having scored less than half (20) as many goals as Man City (45) is a major red flag.
Midfield
I’ve rocked back and forth between Midfield and [insert any other department] as the problem department for Chelsea this season. When your team is successful and playing at his peak strengths it is your midfield what connects your defense to your offense. A high functioning midfield acts as a bridge for the team allowing the flow of play to progress from deep within your own half to deeper into the opposition’s half, closer to their net.
Chelsea’s midfield is neither strong as a base, unable provide cover for the defense, nor is it particularly capable of creating chances and goal scoring opportunities for the offense, which needs all the help it can get.
Chelsea does not have a Rodri who can dictate play from deep or a Fred who can press high to force mistakes from the final third. Chelsea definitely does not have a Kevin De Bruyne or Bruno Fernandes who can generate goal scoring opportunities nor do they have a Granit Xhaka or Joelinton, an all-action dynamic #8 who can make their presence felt box to box. In midfield Chelsea have Mason Mount and that’s really about it.
Defense
When Thiago Silva & Kalidou Koulibaly start together the average age for Chelsea’s CBs is 34.5 years old. The young and promising Wesley Fofana (4 appearances) and Reece James (8 appearances) rarely play which not only creates an over-reliance on the senior defenders but prevents Chelsea from having a settled back four.
Its critical for any player in any position on the field to get consistent game time but no more so than the defenders. In today’s game, especially under Graham Potter, defenses are being asked to play a high-line, meaning when they are out of possession and don’t have the ball its expected that the defender be closer to the opposition, ready to press them in their own half and win the ball back quickly. In the same situational-play, this means if a team attacks you and breaks your press, as we saw in Chelsea’s 0-4 loss to Man City in the FA Cup, your unsettled backline will fall like a house of cards.
Defenses need to be built out of brick, not straw and not sticks. Chelsea’s defense needs to improve both skill-wise but also in their availability, the best ability.
Predictions
Chelsea fans were chanting for Thomas Tuchel during the recent Man City loss. In my humble opinion, Tuchel would not be able to fix this mess this season; he was sacked for a reason after all.
This Chelsea mess requires a full rebuild, but a real rebuild this time. The last rebuild led by Frank Lampard involved resigning Romelu Lukaku, who is technically still a Chelsea player now on loan at Inter. Prior to Frank Lampard, the Chelsea coach was Maurizio Sarri who broke N'Golo Kanté by trying to play him as an offensive box to box 8; no player really excelled in Sari’s system. Prior to Maurizio Sarri, the Chelsea coach Antonio Conte ended up at war with his players, coming off a previous season of winning a league title then collapsing to a 5th place finish. There is a clear pattern of poor fit and incompatibility at Chelsea.
If we use the past to predict the future, its highly unlikely Graham Potter will survive as Chelsea manager. If he survives, I would hope Graham Potter uses these 6 months to evaluate his squad deeply and come the Summer begins a complete rebuild centered around players who are available to play and who are specialists in their positions in a modern football system.