Away Game Tactics & Managers "Graduating"
Away Game Tactics & Managers "Graduating"
"We were disappointed with the final," said Callum Wilson. "It left a sour taste in our mouth. We had to put it right in front of our fans."
A rematch of the EFL Cup final took place this weekend between Manchester United and Newcastle United at St James' Park where the menu only had 1 item, revenge. Why is Manchester United’s record away from home against the better performing teams this season so poor?
In the mid 2010s I worked at startup company that shared an office building with larger more well known Tech company with a market cap of about $20 Billion. This larger company was known in our building for a rumor involving layoffs and how they were conducted - it was said that when this company was about to lay you off you would be summoned into a conference room with your manager and you would be told that today you are graduating. Sadly, a few Premier League managers graduated this weekend.
The Top 6 of the Premier League table right now, not to be confused with the traditional big-ntop 6 teams, includes Arsenal, Man City, Newcastle, Man Utd, Tottenham, and Brighton. Manchester United have yet to face Tottenham away so we’ll include 7th place Brentford in this exercise.
In the 6 away games that Manchester United has played against this top 6 the aggregate score line reads 6-27 having only scored in 3 of 6 six games and conceding 3 or more goals in 5 of the 6.
Following the latest Newcastle 0-2 defeat, a flattering scoreline for Manchester United considering the performance, the response from Luke Shaw and coach Erik Ten Hag in the Post Match was disappointment and frustration at the lack of focus and determination shown by the team in this match; the classic, Newcastle wanted it more.
It was clear from minute 1 that Newcastle would win this match, the stadium was roaring, the fans as well as the players were up for it, Newcastle, having lost the EFL Cup final just 1 month ago had a powerful motivational element driving them, revenge.
In a vacuum this loss could be accepted as a schedule loss or a one-off but when analyzed and put up with the rest of the away performances by Man United so far this season a very worrying similarity is clear and apparent - Manchester United do not perform well when they face the top teams away.
Ten Hag has a his philosophy and a style of play that he’s married to and in the most predictable way, the opposition knows and plans around this. Eddie Howe setup Newcastle to press Man United hard at goal-kicks, attack free-kicks with strong intent to score, and isolate Marcus Rashford out of the game entirely.
There’s tremendous value in remaining firm to your playing style and footballing philosophy. This firmness or sometimes stubbornness, builds habit and a natural subconscious instinct of playing football that is a requirement the evolution of becoming a league title winner.
But as with life, there’s a consequence to this intransigence. Ten Hag and Manchester United are losing significant games and incurring 6 point swings (when you fail to gain 3pts and in the same game you allow 3pts to a table-rival). With this loss, Newcastle was able to jump Man Utd a spot in the league moving them up to 3rd and Man United down to 4th (later down to 5th after Tottenham’s draw with Everton). Was this schedule loss inevitable regardless if Man Utd came out with a more conservative setup? Is this loss insignificant in the long-run of the philosophy of football Ten Hag is building towards? The pressure to finish in 4th place is now on for Manchester United, will they bottle it?
Graduation Season
Antonio Conte - It was no surprise to see Antonio Conte lose his Tottenham job, he practically begged for this.
In my opinion, Tottenham must act immediately. A top 4 finish is still absolutely on the cards for the North London club (they are 4th at time of writing albeit with 2 games played ahead of Man Utd). The feeling among the hierarchy will likely be to avoid rushing into another panicked decision, but this hesitation could literally cost the club millions in revenue (missing out on Europe) and in player-departures (Harry Kane). My recommendation would be to go in full swing for Maurio Pochettino. The Argentine may very well be uninterested as he sets his sights on other vacancies (see below) but if Spurs can bring back Poch, this should be a no-brainer.
Brendan Rodgers - Having spent nearly 5 seasons at Leicester City I felt disappointment with this one. Leicester are now 19th, second below last in the league with 25pts but only 2pts out of the relegation.
The thought-process here I imagine is to search for a veteran Premier League gaffer to bring with them the new-manager boost. Leicester cannot take a chance on an unproven coach here and should look at an old school Roy Hodgson or Sam Allardyce survivor manager. I would look to Rafael Benítez with the eye of keeping him onboard for a promotional run should they fail to survive. It would be silly for me if Leicester City took on a risky appointment such Ralph Hasenhüttl or Jesse Marsch but they could very well do this.
Graham Potter - Can I say classic Chelsea here? I read (unverified) that Graham Potter cost Chelsea £3.1m per Premier League win. Its said that per Brighton, Chelsea paid £21.5m in compensation before taking manager Graham Potter and his backroom team last September signing Potter to a 5 year contract worth (allegedly) £60m. So a total spend of about £80mil here.
The issue was not sacking Potter, I feel with the results being this abysmal, even if the squad is going through a rebuild it was justified. The issue was the monstrous contract this totally unproved manager was signed to. Chelsea panic fired their Champions League winning manager Thomas Tuchel all to overpay and panic sign an unproven Brighton manager presumably because they were worried another big club would snap him up?
My recommendation for Chelsea would be to look at how they would normally behave in these situations and multiple that by -1. Do not, once again, do not panic sign a manager. Chelsea are in 11th place in the league with 38pts, not in any relegation danger. They are only 5pts away from 7th place which is the lowest position to qualify for a European Competition (Conference League).
Knowing you can’t teach an old dog new tricks, Julian Nagelsmann will probably be announced as Chelsea manager by the time this is published. If they want to rush a new hire I would much prefer the more Premier League proven Maurio Pochettino. I would be more inclined to trust Poch with a rebuilding job and it would be strategic to take him off the board for rival Tottenham as well. Is now really the time to take yet another risk on a manager who even though he was still in the Champions League and still within 3pts of winning a league title was sacked by Bayern Munich? You tell me.