Premier League Top 6 Teams Predicted
"Predicting the future is like trying to nail Jell-O to a wall."
"The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know."
Its important to remember the idea that experts and forecasters often overestimate their ability to predict future events accurately and fail to account for the unknown or unpredictable factors that can shape outcomes. Luckily, this program is not managed by an expert.
In the case of predicting the top 6 teams in the Premier League, unknowns can include anything from an injury to a major contributing and integral player (Kevin De Bruyne) or a breakout manager or player(s) to burst onto the scene and lead their team to an unprecedented 4th place finish (Newcastle).
1st Place - Manchester City
Why? - To begin last season Manchester City’s largest issue was establishing who their best defenders to start a match are. Cancelo, who the previous year was arguably the best fullback in the game, had to be introduced to the bench in order to allow a more defensive minded player to play and by proxy cover for City’s now stronger offense.
But even after Cancelo met the bench City struggled to determine who their best defenders were. Going from playing Bernardo Silva at LWB to trying to bleed through young Rico Lewis, it turned out Akanji and Aké were the immovable heroes of the defense. This year City have added Gvardiol and the team knows who they are defensively.
2nd Place - Arsenal
Why? - Arsenal improved their team significantly from last season, especially with the addition of Declan Rice but their next best signing, Jurien Timber, is out for the year and this significantly affected their predicted position.
Although, the defense and midfield have improved for Arsenal, the offense still lacks an integral #9 player. City have shown in the past that this league can be won with a false nine, but that championship was built on the back of an elite midfield and defense.
There’s very little that needs to be changed with Arsenal’s midfield. The defense is just about nearly there as well but so too difficult to expect Martenelli and Saka to carry a championship level winning load on the offensive end. Jesus might have another level to his game, the Brazilian is still only 26 years old and we’ve seen forwards in the past elevate quite significantly as they meet their 30s.
Arsenal have a strong defense and an even stronger midfield but City will be too much to handle.
3rd Place - Manchester United
Why? - This is where the prediction line to become shaky. Manchester United should be challenging for the Premier League title this season but with 2 loses already, that ship has sailed.
United should boil up to 3rd place as a result of having more pedigree in the squad. The addition of Onana is an immense improvement to the team and seasoned vets like Varane, Casemiro and Bruno Fernandes automatically give you a points-floor that in addition to Marcus Rashford, mean a top 4 finish is the absolute minimum expectation from the Reds.
New addition Rasmus Højlund comes in as a wild card which could change things significantly for this year’s trophy aspirations but as do the possible disciplinary repercussions for Antony and Jadon Sancho.
4th Place - Tottenham
Why? - Ange Postecoglou has shown a lot in a short period of time. It’s very difficult and it feels amateurish to predict that Tottenham can lose their greatest player of all time in Harry Kane and finish 4 positions higher than last season. That being said, the additions of James Maddison, Udogie and Van de Ven compliment the manager’s playing style and philosophy so much that Harry Kane has been replaced by a committee.
Tottenham with Antonio Conte have fooled me before. Conte brought to Tottenham this same feeling of identity and character upon his arrival, except the difference with Ange is the football is much more entertaining to watch and more scalable for improvement over the course of a season.
Theoretically, Tottenham should only get better. The team plays a possession based style of football, one reliant on a strong understanding of positions as well trust in one another. As the team puts more mileage on their shape and philosophy, the channels and patterns of play should come more naturally and with ease. There is also a world where the team pickup a few difficult loses and Ange’s identity is challenged. This is why predictions are hard.
5th Place - Liverpool
Why? Liverpool did not improve their squad enough to warrant a higher league table finish than last season. Klopp, a manager not well-known for his team rebuilding skills, is still toying with the shape of his offense. We all know and realize Mohamed Salah is an exceptional player. Luis Díaz, who missed the majority of last season comes in as a top class left winger. But its that massive open void in the center of the offense that’s still a question mark. This void should be filled by Darwin Nunez but its unclear how highly Klopp rates the Uruguayan.
Cody Gakpo is rated highly but his best position for Liverpool might be closer to midfield. Those metaphorical orange cones you’re seeing on the pitch are not there for drills, those are a caution for Liverpool’s continued midfield rebuild.
Renovation projects are tough (cc: Chelsea) and expensive, we know how much Liverpool have spent this Summer with the additions of Szoboszlai & Mac Allister. The desire to improve was there, but was it enough? I think 1 more big presence in defensive midfield was required.
6th Place - Newcastle
Why? The idea that lightning won't strike the same place twice is a dangerous myth but at The Talisman, we like danger. Newcastle improved their squad with Sandro Tonali and a player I really enjoy watching, Harvey Barnes.
The improvements in personnel are there, as is the expectation that the young players in Gordon and Isak will level up, but is that enough to remain on pace with another season of top 4 worthy results?
Newcastle made their success last season by simply not losing games; which is the foundation of this minus 3-position prediction. For context, Manchester United finished 3rd and 4pts ahead of Newcastle, the Reds lost 9 games. Meanwhile, Newcastle only lost 5 games, tied with Manchester City, but pulled a draw result in a huge 14 games.
Without significant elite level improvements to this team, its difficult to expect other Premier League teams will not be better prepared and ready to exploit this Newcastle teams’ weaknesses this year.
Honorable Mention - Chelsea to finish in 7th place.
The team still has far too many project-players they are relying on to contribute. Some of the deadwood in the defense or in net such as Kepa, has not been replaced with better players. If anything, the backline has become even more inexperienced with Disasi and Malo Gusto, not to mention Thiago Silva is another year older.